2018 figures indicate a decline in sales of new tractors in Europe, China and Turkey, and growth in the US and India.

This has not been a good year for South Africa’s farming sector and related industries.

John Deere presented a new concept tractor during a dealer event in Spain. The tractor is autonomous, has an electric drivetrain, is equipped with tracks and articulated steering.

AUSTRIAN tractor brand STEYR has unveiled a comprehensive project study on what the future of tractor production could be, in collaboration with CNH Industrial sister powertrain brand.

The South African agricultural machinery market started the year on a bad footing. Tractor sales were down 14% y/y, with 333 units sold. This is the lowest monthly sales data that has been recorded over the past six years –

This sales data is, however, unsurprising as it is a continuation of the 2019 tractor sales trend. That year, farmers’ incomes were constrained because of poor harvests on the back of drought and biosecurity issues, amongst other aspects. As we have consistently pointed out in the previous posts, the drought which led to lower agricultural output in 2019 is not the full story. It’s worth remembering that in 2018 South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales were relatively robust, which implies that the rate of replacement in 2019 was going to below.[1]

What’s more, there have been questions about whether agricultural policy, which has dominated the headlines in the past few years (certainly between 2017 and 2019), has influenced farmers’ attitudes on investments. To this end, we continue to monitor, through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), the influence of policy discussions on agricultural investment.

Certainly, sentiment in the farming sector has generally been subdued for the past six quarters (counting from Q4, 2019). This is the longest period the ACI has trended below the neutral 50-point mark points since 2010, which implies that agribusinesses are downbeat about business conditions in South Africa.

However, we are yet to have a full picture of the sector’s fixed investment numbers for 2019. What we found rather comforting thus far is that fixed investments in the sector did not decline notably in 2018.

Be that as it may, the subdued confidence levels suggest a need for urgency in moving the policy levers to ensure that, at least matters that are in the South African policymakers’ reach are well addressed in the interest of sustainable growth of the agricultural and agribusiness sector.

[1] South Africa’s total tractors and combine harvesters’ sales for 2018 amounted to 6 687 units and 200 units, up by 4% y/y and 2% y/y, respectively.

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Stephen Heckeroth’s desire to help the planet has seeped into the world of agriculture.

Autotrac Vision uses a hi-res front-mounted camera to automatically guide machinery down established crop rows.

Cereals, a giant trade fair for British crop farmers, is a bit of a social occasion for people whose line of work often leaves them isolated.

In June 2019, the UK became the first major world economy to set a target for achieving net zero on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into law, with then Prime Minister Theresa May committing the UK to net zero emissions by 2050.

The Chinese are now also getting involved in future tractors. With the new e-tractor named ET504-H they want to position themselves accordingly in the market. They also want to make agricultural machinery more environmentally friendly.

Sporting a futuristic appearance, the model ET504-H tractor adopts 5G mobile communication technology, has a self-driving mode, and can be remotely controlled. The future tractor is co-developed by Luoyang Research Institute for Intelligent Agricultural Equipment Co., Ltd. ( CHIAIC) and Luoyang advanced manufacturing industry R&D base of Tsinghua University’s Tianjin Research Institute for Advanced Equipment.

Tractor manufacturer YTO involved
The largest Chinese tractor manufacturer YTO is also involved in the development. Some parts of the prototype were manufactured by YTO. YTO says that CHIAIC will continue to pour efforts into developing new energy unmanned tractors, get ahead in such key technologies as unmanned driving and electric control, and create new energy unmanned equipment in the field of agricultural machinery.

Fully electric
The ET504_H tractor has a main permanent-magnet, synchronous mid-motor and independent electric lifting and steering motors. The hydrogen fuel cell operates when the tractor does not require its full power, while under heavy load, the lithium battery will add further power supply. The electric driveline can deliver 50 horsepower with a maximum speed of 30 kilometers per hour ( 18 miles per hour).

Unmanned cluster technology
The ET504-H tractor has been developed from the outset to be able to drive without a driver. For this purpose, the tractor relies on the 5G network from China Mobile and also uses GPS antenna, millimetre-wave radar and large data technology for remote control. This navigation technology can perceive the running state of the vehicle and surrounding working environment in real-time. It takes advantage of 5G features such as high speed, low delay and large connection volume, and combines them with intelligent unmanned cluster technology to effectively improve the reliability of agricultural machinery operations and provide consumers with higher quality services.

No clear market plan
“With this tractor we want to give local demonstrations to show that an autonomous tractor running on hydrogen is possible in farming practice”, says Huang Shengcao, Deputy General Manager of CHIAIC. “With this tractor we want to give local demonstrations to show that an autonomous tractor running on hydrogen is possible in farming practice”, says Huang Shengcao, Deputy General Manager of CHIAIC. ‘’The ET504-H tractor has now completed a series of trials in production and marketing. But due to current impact of the high battery cost, there is no clear sales plan yet. However, that can change quickly if the costs for the batteries drop.”

More hydrogen-powered tractors
Research has been conducted for some time into agricultural tractors that run on hydrogen with fuel cells. New Holland Agriculture released its first ever hydrogen-powered NH2 tractor in 2009, which was after then in service on farms in Europe by 2012. But due limited availability of the fuel and high production costs , it has never made it commercially viable.

The cost of compaction needs to count not only the investment in time, fuel and equipment required to take remedial action to repair the damage, but also the significant yield loss it often causes.

Fendt’s Xaver field robot now has 3 instead of 4 wheels, and is equipped with a seeding unit with a disc coulter.

South Africa’s tractors sales maintained the positive path in September 2020, which has been underway since June, increasing by 23% y/y with 529 units sold.

Research from the Department of Food Science at Aarhus University shows that the implementation of controlled traffic farming can benefit the production of organic vegetables.

Agricultural mechanisation is on the rise in Africa, replacing hand hoes and animal traction across the continent.

The South African automobile industry could be faced with exporting 80% less - thereby eliminating half the jobs it provides - if local manufacturers don't get with the global programme and go green.

If you’re interested in autonomous tractors rather than field robots, you’ll have your best shot with brand independent suppliers of autonomous retrofit kits as there’s only two tractor manufacturers offering autonomous tractors right now.

We are likely in another week of positive news for South Africa's agricultural sector.

Gerrit Kurstjens, is a pioneering farmer who has already clocked up 40,000ha of autonomous operations on 13,000ha of cropping area at Beefwood Farms, Moree in New South Wales, Australia.

The “fruits” of South Africa’s good harvest in 2020 and the prospects of another good season in 2021 continue to benefit the allied industries.