VIEWPOINT-FAO Maps Pinpoint El Niño Drought Risk Across Africa as Experts Warn of $10

As one analyst put it: the pressures expected from this powerful El Niño are a much bigger worry for Africa as a whole than for South Africa specifically.

South Africa is likely heading into an El Niño later in 2026 and into 2027. Forecasters say there is about an 82 percent chance it will develop by mid 2026, and a very high chance it will be in place by the summer of 2026 to 2027. Some reports are even warning it could be a strong or super El Niño.In South Africa that usually means it gets hotter and drier during the summer rainfall months.

The areas most affected are typically the summer crop regions like the Free State, North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern part of the Eastern Cape. When El Niño is strong it can bring drought, heatwaves, and lower rainfall which hits maize, oilseeds, fruit, vegetables and grazing land hard. Maize is especially vulnerable because it is such a key staple food here.The good news is that South Africa is going into this season in a stronger position than many other African countries.

The last few years of La Niña rains have left us with good soil moisture, higher dam levels, and better grazing conditions. About 20 percent of crops are under irrigation so fruit and vegetables should get some support from that. We also have large grain reserves from the 2025 to 2026 harvest, which is expected to be one of our biggest on record. That gives us a buffer going into next year.Still, there will be pressure. Farming costs are already high because of fuel and fertiliser prices.

If the rains are poor, yields could drop and food prices may rise in 2027. Livestock farmers could also feel it if the veld dries out later in the season. Economists warn that El Niño adds extra risk to the agriculture outlook, even though the sector has been resilient in recent years.So in short, we are likely to see a hot and dry summer with some strain on farmers, but because of good water reserves and grain stocks, South Africa should cope better than most of the rest of the continent. The biggest risk will be if the dry conditions drag on into 2027 and affect planting.