2026 has been a year of extremes – frost, hail, wildfires, droughts and record-breaking heat. Grapes that have managed to survive the deluge have been put on the fast track to maturity, and in regions across the world, harvest is well under way.
Champagne, Bordeaux, Burgundy, Languedoc, Provence, Roussillon, Sicily, Santa Barbara (harvest began as early as June 30!), Napa, Catalonia and the list goes on and on, are already harvesting grapes, or are about to kick it off.
We are entering new territory, with many fearing that the grapes being harvested may be sugar-drunk, but lacking full phenological maturity. Others say bud break began early, so the early harvest makes sense. Almost everyone is trying to figure out how to plant and plan for the future.
A warm winter
Climate change has had a devastating effect on the 2026 vintage, especially in France, Spain and the US.
Early bud breaks followed by frost or hail on the East Coast and in France caused upwards of 90 percent primary bud damage in hard-hit pockets of New York, Virginia, Burgundy and beyond. Then, wildfires across France and Spain devoured hundreds of thousands of acres, threatening prime wine-growing regions across Bordeaux, Provence, Avila and Cebreros.
Even vignerons in regions that were relatively unscathed observed how shifting weather patterns are adding pressure to the growing season.
"Things got off to an early start, and many growers were caught off-guard and have spent much of the season playing catch-up," says Aaron Jackson, founder and winemaker of Aaron Wines in Paso Robles and AKANA in San Luis Obispo. "After a very warm winter, cooler seasonal temperatures have prevailed along with higher than normal humidity, so there have been lots of issues with powdery mildew."
Grapevines didn't get their usual winter nap, which translates to stressed vines, Jackson says. Plus, unusually strong winds in the spring suppressed growth.
"The mildew pressure is the worst I've ever seen," Jackson says. "We are seeing very low yields due to a windy spring."
Early kickoff
Even so, Jackson says he doesn't "have any immediate quality concerns."
James Sparks, founder and winemaker at Santa Barbara's Kings Carey Wines and winemaker at Liquid Farms, says he was alarmed when he heard rumors about growers picking grapes in June for sparkling wine. And while he is holding his breath, he's not overly concerned about the the quality of the grapes this year.
"Bud break was super early this year," Sparks says. "I want to say early February. Bud break is typically in March, but we hope for April because at the end of April we are out of frost potential."
Despite the early kickoff, the growing season progressed at a normal rate, merely on an earlier timetable.
"It's basically just shifting things," Sparks says. "The grapes are reaching complete maturity, just much earlier than they used to."
Shifting goalposts
Not that Sparks isn't feeling apprehensive about the future, considering the pace of change.
"Before 2013 if you asked me if our region had consistent weather, I'd have said, 'absolutely,'" he says. "But now? No way. There is greater variation and more extremes every year. More rain during harvest than I thought possible. Every year is different. All I can do is watch and try to be prepared for anything."
Sparks is particularly concerned about changes he's seeing in the diurnal shift, or the difference in temperatures between day and night. In wine regions like Santa Barbara, warmer temperatures during the day are followed by much cooler temperatures at night during the growing season, which locks in brightness and ensures balanced flavors.
"The last few years have not given us the coolness we wanted at night," Sparks says. "We used to have a 40 degree diurnal shift, but now it might be 20 degrees for most of the season. That means we lose acid as we gain sugar."
Ultimately, that may force more winemakers to acidulate in the cellar, something low-intervention winemakers like Sparks eschew at (almost) all costs.
Fluctuating temperature patterns are also troubling Charlotte Oliver, who has a PhD in plant pathology and works with the Colorado wine industry as a regional viticulture extension specialist at Colorado State University.
"The frequency of sudden temperature shifts is the biggest impact of climate change we see," Oliver says. "We had three killing freezes in five years. That forced us to adapt and change varieties."
Since 2000, she has seen a steady influx of modern and hybrid grape varieties, which can often handle wild fluctuations better than their vitis vinifera counterparts. Currently, about 28 percent of the grapes under vine in Colorado are bred for resilience, Oliver says. But the market may not be ready to embrace what she believes growers across the world will have to plant if they want more uniform and predictable harvest results.
"What grape production should be doing doesn't always mesh well with what the market accepts," Oliver says. "New varieties are frowned on, even when they are developed in Europe. Also, NRCS and USDA used to have more grower-focused grants to help but those are much more complicated or non-existent anymore."
Reshaping vineyards
Grape choices are slowly changing, and so are centuries-old accepted viticultural hierarchies, says Stefano Gagliardo, owner and winemaker at Barolo's Poderi Gianni Gagliardo.
"Climate change is reshaping the hierarchy of wine regions, grape varieties and even individual vineyards," Gagliardo says. "Its effects are certainly not the same everywhere. For some regions and varieties, the impact has been highly detrimental."
But others, like Barolo he argues, have been elevated.
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"Barolo today is often better than it was a few decades ago," he says. "It has become less common to find wines with aggressively hard tannins that require decades in the cellar before they can truly be enjoyed."
And vineyards and crus that were considered exceptional 20, 30 years ago are less interesting today, he continues.
"Climate change is undoubtedly a challenge," Gagliardo says. "It invites us to observe our vineyards with curiosity rather than assumptions."
A new norm
Curiosity that can, everyone hopes, lead to new ideas and solutions.
"We are in a new normal, which is to expect the unexpected," says Jessica Gasca, founder and winemaker of Story of Soil in the Sta. Rita Hills, adding that the team has come up with a number of strategies that seem to boost grape health. "Canopy management is adjusted throughout the season to balance sun exposure, protect fruit from excessive heat and maintain airflow."
Gasca is also embracing each vintage, warts and all.
"Variation is inevitable, and that's the beauty of farming and the reason that every bottle tells a unique story of time and place," she says.
Justin Ennis, winemaker at Freestone Vineyards, is also similarly pro-active about canopy management.
"We are very selective about leaf pulling so that we don't expose the fruit to direct sunlight," Ennis says. "In areas where our row orientation is less than ideal, we have installed cross arms in the trellis so that we can pull leaves in the interior for air flow and dappled sunlight."
Plus, the Freestone team harvests grapes at night, an increasingly common practice in wine regions around the world, in a bid to ensure firm, turgid grapes – as opposed to hot softies covered in fruit flies.
Some vintners are also boosting target tons per acre, once considered a no-no in fine winemaking.
"Twenty years ago, two tons per acre was the holy grail for quality Pinot Noir," says Michael Davies, executive winemaker for Willamette Valley, Oregon's REX HILL. "Nowadays, most growers and winemakers are comfortable between 2.5 and three tons per acre."
Davies and the REX HILL team have also experimented with canopy height.
"We have taken the step a few times in the past to decrease the total height of canopy by hedging the shoots lower," he says. "This slows down the photosynthetic engine. The more leaves we have, the greater the degree of photosynthesis and corresponding respiration. By reducing the canopy we believe we can keep the vines humming at a more moderate rpm."
2026 may be the earliest vintage yet, but we are likely facing earlier ones in the near future. The climate has reset harvest. Now it's time for our philosophies and practices to accept that, pay attention, take proactive action and brace for more uncertainty ahead.
"Looking at the long term, we have to face climate change with humility," says Gagliardo. "Adapting our practice as new issues emerge is necessary. But if we look honestly at the present, the picture is more nuanced than simply saying that everything is getting worse."
