Over three and a half years, between 2022 and 2026, researchers from Ashia Cheetah Conservation, the Cheetah Outreach Trust (COT) and the University of Groningen in the Netherlands surveyed almost 100,000 square kilometers (38,610 square miles) of habitat across South Africa’s northern border.
Wild cheetahs that inhabit the unprotected areas of South Africa are considered “free roaming.”
Using camera traps, GPS collars, landowner surveys, genetic analyses, scat sampling and public sighting records, they compiled the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census (FRCC), which they described as the most comprehensive assessment yet of South Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs.
During this time, they recorded only 83 mature adults, and 119 individual animals in total, which is 70% less than previous, smaller-scale studies suggested using model-based estimates.
“Finding fewer than 100 mature adults is an extremely strong indication of how dramatically smaller the population has become within South Africa over the years,” Marna Smit, director of Ashia Cheetah Conservation, told Mongabay. Because of a high mortality rate in young cheetahs, which can be up to 90% for wild animals, mature adults — the breeding population —- are important for the survival of the species.
Cheetahs in South Africa are currently managed in four separate systems: The free-roaming population, the semi-protected population in Kruger National Park and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, the so-called metapopulation in fenced reserves, and those that are held in captivity.
With the data collected, the researchers concluded that a more coordinated national conservation plan to protect South Africa’s last free-roaming cheetahs is needed.
While the researchers said that the documented number establishes the minimum of wild cheetahs, the data they collected is enough to call for a revision of the habitat range as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Deon Cilliers of COT, told Mongabay by phone. IUCN is the global wildlife conservation authority.
In the census, cheetahs were present in less than half of the areas previously classified as suitable habitat, suggesting existing IUCN range maps overestimate the species’ distribution.
“Considering the most recent population data, we are moving to reclassifying these cheetahs as endangered and not vulnerable [under the Regional Red List of South Africa],” Cilliers said. He added that the findings are already feeding into conservation actions. The Africa Range-Wide Cheetah Conservation Initiative, which COT is part of, is working toward updating the IUCN’s distribution maps and changing the IUCN status.
Cilliers said that, for him, the most alarming finding was that around 20% of the cheetahs identified during the study died over the three-and-a-half-year survey. Of those where the cause of death is known, many died through illegal persecution.
Some good news for South Africa’s cheetahs
“Even if we do have a larger population than the minimum count suggests, losing such high numbers through human intervention will be detrimental to the long-term viability of this fragile cheetah population,” Cilliers said.
Persecution by landowners who believe cheetahs are killing their livestock is one of the major factors for premature mortality of free-roaming cheetahs in the region. The surveys showed that many farmers are tolerant toward cheetahs. However, those that are not, choose to take violent action to eliminate the perceived threat.
Analysis of samples of cheetah feces found no evidence of livestock remains, suggesting cheetahs in the study area fed primarily on different species of antelope. However, this does not mean livestock predation never occurs, said Cilliers, for whom raising awareness is key to tackle the human-wildlife issue.
The researchers concluded that conservation efforts that focus on helping farmers coexist with cheetahs through non-lethal predator management and financial incentives will be crucial to prevent humans killing cheetahs.
The census also found that South Africa’s remaining wild cheetah populations have become increasingly fragmented. Expanding agriculture, intensive fencing, infrastructure development and human settlements have effectively split the population into two regions — one including the Northern Cape and most of North West, and the other in the smaller portion of North West and Limpopo. This split reduces movement between cheetahs, increasing the risk of inbreeding.
“Cheetahs need large, connected landscapes to survive,” Smit with the Ashia Cheetah Conservation said. “Maintaining connectivity is essential for genetic diversity and long-term survival.”
Smit highlighted another worrying trend. South Africa’s fenced metapopulation has increased, which is widely regarded as a conservation success. However, researchers said this may unintentionally weaken the free-roaming population as wild cheetahs can enter these reserves but are unable to leave.
Smit told Mongabay that this causes the reserves to turn into sinks for free-roaming animals. Once that happens, the animals contribute genetically to the reserve population, but no longer to the gene flow of the wild population.
This observation has prompted the study researchers to call for a single national conservation strategy, with better coordination between government, conservation agencies, NGOs, reserve managers and private landowners.
Mongabay contacted the South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
“We need consistent national monitoring, regular genetic assessments, improved data sharing, and management decisions that consider the status of all cheetah populations together rather than in isolation,” Smit said.
