Climate Intuition: Food security under pressure: Iran conflict disruptions and a brewing El Niño
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When I wrote my recent pieces on the intersection of climate and national security and agriculture and food security, I didn’t expect so many examples of “climate as a threat multiplier” to emerge so quickly.
What Is Climate Change? 2026
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Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions.
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The timing of this El Niño event – unfolding at a rapid pace after the fading of its polar opposite La Niña, which typically drenches this region – could hardly be worse as it is looming against the backdrop of surging fuel and fertiliser prices triggered by the almost three-month long Iran conflict.
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Extreme heat and drought could damage harvests and worsen global food insecurity this summer.
Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs from the Iran war, with an emerging El Nino also set to squeeze output of the world's most consumed staple.
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Tropical forests are hot, steamy places. But when large numbers of trees are cut down, they get even hotter
- The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality
- Climate tipping points are close: scientists urge radical action before it’s too late
- Artificial intelligence could dramatically improve weather forecasting
- La Niña prospects grow, heralding wet weather along with increased risk of flooding
