Final production estimate of summer crops released- South Africa

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The area planted estimate and final production forecast of summer crops for the 2018 production season was recently released by the National Crop Estimates Committee.

Today the Crop Estimate Committee released its final production estimates for the 2017/18 summer crop and second production estimated for 2018/19 winter crop. In terms of summer crops, the major oilseeds such as soybeans and sunflower seed were left unchanged from the previous month, whilst the commercial maize production estimate was revised down by 2% from the previous estimate to 12.9 million tonnes, which is somewhat in line with our expectations. From a winter crop perspective, the wheat production estimate was revised up by 2% from last month to 1.8 million tonnes – all thanks to good rainfall in parts of the Western Cape and an expansion in area planted in the Free State province.

Commercial maize

The size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 12,931 million tons, which is 2,09% or 276 100 tons less than the previous forecast of 13,207 million tons. The area estimate for maize is 2,319 million hectares, while the expected yield is 5,58 tons per hectare (t/ha).

The area estimate for white maize is 1,268 million hectares and for yellow maize the area estimate is 1,051 million hectares.

The production forecast of white maize is 6,802 million tons, which is 1,14% or 78 400 tons less than the 6,880 million tons of the previous forecast. The yield for white maize is 5,36 t/ha. In the case of yellow maize, the production forecast is 6,130 million tons, which is 3,12% or 197 700 tons less than the 6,327 million tons of the previous forecast. The yield for yellow maize is 5,83 t/ha.

Sunflower seed

The production forecast for sunflower seed remained unchanged at 858 605 tons, with an estimated planted area of 601 500 ha and an expected yield of 1,43 t/ha.

Other crops

The production forecast for soya beans also remained unchanged at 1,551 million tons, with an estimated planted area of 787 200 ha and an expected yield of 1,97 t/ha.

The expected groundnut crop was increased by 3,37% or 1 750 tons to 53 750 tons. The area estimate is 56 300 hectares and the expected yield is 0,95 t/ha.

The production forecast for sorghum was also increased by 4,50% or 4 735 tons to 109 855 tons. The area estimate for sorghum is 28 800 hectares. The expected yield is 3,81 t/ha. In the case of dry beans, the production forecast is 69 360 tons, which is 5,72% or 3 750 tons more than the previous forecast of 65 610 tons. The area estimate of dry beans is 53 360 hectares, with an expected yield of 1,30 t/ha.

Please note that the ‘intentions of farmers’ to plant summer grain crops for 2019 will be released on 25 October 2018. – CEC Report