Conditions during autumn tends to be pleasant over the interior of South Africa – especially in the absence of early outbreaks of cold conditions.
The next few days will be typical of such conditions. Rainfall totals should for the most part be below normal for this time of the year, but isolated to scattered thundershowers will occur on most days in a diagonal band across the country from the northern parts of the Northern Cape in an east-southeasterly direction to include the central to southeastern parts and Highveld on several days. Very little rain is expected over the Limpopo and southwestern parts of the country. There are no indications of an early outbreak of cold conditions and early frost during the next few days into next week.
The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:
• General:
o The northeastern and southwestern parts of the country are expected to be dry for the most part.
o The central to southern and eastern parts of the country, including the Highveld, will receive thundershowers on several days, but rainfall totals during the period should for the most part be in the normal to below-normal categories over these parts. normal to above-normal rainfall during the next few days.
o Most of the country is expected to experience near-normal temperatures, but the northern parts of the Northern Cape should remain warmer than the norm.
o There are no current indications of strong southeasterlies over the southwestern parts during the next few days, indicative also of relatively dry conditions over the interior in the absence of strong high-pressure systems to the south.
• Rainfall:
o Isolated thundershowers will mostly over the Northern parts of the Northern Cape southeastwards through the southern parts of the Free State and along the southeastern escarpment and Eastern Highveld for the remainder of the week.
o Thundershowers will spread into the North West and rest of the Free State as well as the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and KZN during the weekend while remaining in place also over Mpumalanga and Gauteng and becoming slightly more scattered.
o Isolated to scattered thundershowers will remain in place over the North West, Free State, KZN, Mpumalanga, Gauteng and eastern parts of the Eastern Cape early next week.
o Little to no rain is expected over the southern to western parts of the Northern Cape, the Western Cape, western parts of the Eastern Cape and Limpopo.
• Temperatures:
o It will be hot for this time of the year over the northwestern half of the Northern Cape, with maximum temperatures reaching the middle to upper 30s on several days.
o It will be warm to hot and windy on Wednesday and Thursday (18th / 19th) over the northern, northwestern and central parts of the Northern Cape.
o It will be very hot over the western to southern parts by early next week according to current forecasts.
o Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 25 and 30°C. Minimums will be in the order of 15 - 20°C.
o Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 25 and 30°C while minimums will be in the order of 11 - 15°C.
Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days
Circulation across the country will be weakly anticyclonic for the most part with some perturbations moving through at times, supporting thundershowers over the central to southeastern and eastern parts.
Conditions in main agricultural production regions (18 - 24 March)
Maize production region:
It will be partly cloudy and mild to warm with isolated to scattered thundershowers on some days. Thundershowers should be somewhat more scattered during the weekend. Over the western parts, maximum temperatures will range between 25 and 30°C. Minimums will be in the order of 15 - 20°C. Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 25 and 30°C while minimums will be in the order of 11 - 15°C.
Cape Wine Lands and Ruens:
It will be sunny and mild until Saturday (21st), becoming partly cloudy and warm to hot early next week. Winds should be light to moderate for the most part.
Possible extreme conditions - relevant to agriculture
According to current model projections (GFS model) of weather conditions during the coming week, the following may be deduced:
• Some thundershowers over KZN and Mpumalanga by Thursday (19th) and Friday (20th) may become severe.
• It will be very hot over the Orange River Valley by Wednesday and Thursday (18th / 19th) and again early next week.
• Hot and windy conditions on Wednesday and Thursday (18th / 19th) over the northern, northwestern and central parts of the Northern Cape, coupled with the possible development of isolated thundershowers in the region, may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires where vegetation is dry.
• Hot and windy conditions over the western to southern interior by Tuesday (24th) according to current forecasts may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires where vegetation is dry.
