About 8 million children across East and Southern Africa could face acute hunger by early 2027, a rise of 30%, as one of the strongest El Niño weather events in recent years fuels a growing food crisis, according to a new analysis by Save the Children.
An analysis of recent data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global hunger monitor, found that the number of people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse (IPC Phase 3+) in six countries is expected to surge from 12.6 million to 16.4 million by March 2027, driven in part by the effects of the looming "super" El Niño.
Currently, 6 million children in those six countries are experiencing severe food shortages, but that number is set to rise to 8 million in the next few months unless urgent action is taken, Save the Children said.
The agency's analysis covered only countries with recent IPC reports where El Niño is projected to have devastating effects: Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda and Kenya.
New hunger data is due out shortly for Somalia, which has already been flagged as being at risk of El Niño-related floods.
Uganda is projected to have the highest number of people facing acute food insecurity in the coming months, with 4.4 million people expected to face crisis levels of hunger or worse by early 2027—a 22% increase from previous figures. The situation is particularly bad in the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda, which has seen an increase of more than 40% in the number of people facing crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.
Zambia is forecast to experience the sharpest deterioration, with the number of people facing crisis-level hunger rising by 80% to more than 1.2 million, while Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi are expected to see increases of 75%, 55% and 35%, respectively.
While food security in Kenya is expected to improve overall by the start of 2027 after deteriorating this year, the situation among refugees in the country is expected to worsen because of El Niño-related flooding.
In Mozambique, the forecast comes as many communities in the central provinces are still recovering from severe flooding earlier this year, while conflict-driven displacement in Cabo Delgado continues to put pressure on food, water and health services.
In Madagascar, about 502,000 children under 5—or 1 in 10—are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition between May 2026 and April 2027. This includes about 78,000 children expected to have severe acute malnutrition, the deadliest form of malnutrition, which requires urgent medical treatment.
The worsening food crisis across much of the region comes as one of the strongest El Niño weather events in recent years combines with record-breaking global temperatures. The combination will cause dangerous droughts, crop failures and livestock losses across parts of Southern Africa.
At the same time, El Niño will cause devastating floods in parts of East Africa, pushing already vulnerable families deeper into crisis.
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Save the Children said El Niño is unfolding against a backdrop of conflict, hunger, displacement, economic instability and humanitarian funding cuts. Without early action, the aid agency said, climate shocks are likely to compound existing vulnerabilities and deepen humanitarian needs, particularly for children and their families.
Yvonne Arunga, regional director for Save the Children in East and Southern Africa, said, "Hunger is not just about empty stomachs. Children who do not have enough nutritious food are more likely to become malnourished, fall ill, miss school and face increased risks of exploitation and abuse. The longer families go without support, the harder it becomes for children to recover.
"When families' livelihoods are destroyed by floods or drought, children may face greater risks of child labor, trafficking, neglect, violence, forced early marriage and other forms of exploitation.
"We know El Niño is coming. We know which children are most at risk. And we know that anticipatory action works. Governments must turn early warnings into early action to protect essential services like schools, hospitals, water and social protection systems before the crisis hits.
"The international community and donors must invest now, before droughts, floods and food crises escalate. Every dollar spent helping communities prepare and act early can save lives, protect livelihoods and reduce the need for much larger humanitarian responses later."
Save the Children has invested significantly in anticipatory action, taking practical steps ahead of forecast shocks to reduce their effects on children and communities. Across the region, Save the Children is helping families prepare for floods, storms and droughts through measures such as early warning information targeted at children, evacuation planning, stronger community preparedness and anticipatory cash assistance to allow families to prepare for disasters.
Save the Children is also reinforcing health facilities, schools and water systems so they can better withstand floods, droughts and other climate-related shocks.
