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This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.
In 2024, the EU had 132 million pigs, 72 million bovine animals, 57 million sheep and 10 million goats. Compared with the previous year, all livestock populations declined – the pig population decreased by 0.5%, bovines by 2.8%, sheep by 1.7% and goats by 1.6%. Recent declines in livestock populations have reinforced the longer-term trend in the EU. Compared with 2014, the population of pigs in 2024 was 8.1% lower, bovine animals 8.7% lower, sheep 9.4% lower and goats 16.3% lower.
South Africa’s agricultural sector is roundly expected to recover in 2025. However, this recovery will invariably be uneven due to biosecurity challenges confronting the livestock subsector and heightened geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Statistics South Africa’s data showed that South Africa’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 15.8% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) (seasonally adjusted and annualised) in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1- 2025). The increase in agricultural GDP was made possible by production expansion mainly in the horticulture and livestock subsectors, which was supported by largely favourable producer prices in the sector. The projected 2025 sectoral recovery will mainly be driven by a rebound in the field crops subsector and its concomitant positive spinoffs for the livestock subsector, as well as logistical and infrastructural improvements at the ports. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 5 points in Q2-2025 to 65 points. This was largely due to geopolitical and global trade uncertainties, and the unrelenting biosecurity pressures saddling the livestock subsector. Despite the slight decline, the ACI’s performance still points to an agribusinesses sector that is still upbeat, albeit cautious, about business conditions in the country.
This week, the rand averaged R17.95/US$, weakening by 1% w/w but strengthening by 0.9% y/y. The rand was pressured by concerns over the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. • The Brent crude oil price averaged US$76.22 barrel, up by 8.5% w/w but down by 8.4% y/y. Oil prices firmed on supply concerns due to the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. • As a result of the Middle East conflict, the price of Brent crude oil could remain elevated while the rand depreciates further for the remainder of this month. This is forecast to cause the following increases in local fuel prices on 02 July 2025: petrol (95 unleaded) by 61c/l, diesel 500 ppm by 91c/l, and diesel 50 ppm by 93c/
In week 24-2025, the yellow maize price averaged R4 181/ton, up by 1% w/w and by 5.1% y/y. The white maize price averaged R4 665/ton, up by 3% w/w but down by 9.1% y/y. • The domestic maize prices posted some gains from rand weakness. However, forecasts of favourable weather in the US Maize Belt and a positive domestic production outlook remain bearish factors. • In week-07 of the domestic 2025/26 MY, 3.2 million tons of white and yellow maize had cumulatively been delivered. In the same week, cumulative exports of white and yellow maize reached a combined 105 848 tons. • The top three export destinations of white maize were Zimbabwe (19 360 tons), Botswana (13 017 tons), and Eswatini (8 676 tons). The top three destinations of yellow maize were Zimbabwe (23 717 tons), Eswatini (13 222 tons), and Mozambique (8 011 tons).
The soya bean price averaged R7 332/ton, up by 2.3% w/w but down by 18% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R9 477/ton, up by 3.4% w/w and by 5.4% y/y. • The domestic soya bean prices were also supported by rand weakness. Chicago soya bean contracts also rallied from gains in soya oil and the broader energy market due to the Middle East conflict. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-15 of the 2025/26 MY stood at 2.4 million tons of soya bean and 475 423 tons of sunflower seed.
The wheat price averaged R6 422/ton, up by 1.1% w/w and by 0.14% y/y on rand weakness and firmer US prices from a slower than average winter wheat harvest. • In week-37 of the 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 1.861 million tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 1.157 million tons, with 359 745 tons coming from Russia, 211 455 coming from Australia, and 195 978 tons from Lithuania.
EU agri-food trade held firm in the first quarter of 2025, despite rising global commodity prices, according to a press release from the European Commission's Directorate General for Agriculture. Exports increased by 3% year-over-year, reaching €59.7 billion, supported by high cocoa and dairy prices. Imports rose by 20%, totalling €48.1 billion, driven by higher prices for cocoa, coffee, fruit and nuts.
Despite the jump in imports, the EU’s agri-food trade balance remained positive at €11.6 billion, although slightly reduced from the same period in 2024.
Dairy and confectionery exports up, cereals down
In March 2025 alone, EU agri-food exports totalled €21.1 billion. For the full quarter, the UK remained the top destination, importing €13.5 billion worth of EU products—a 5% increase from 2024.
Exports of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices grew by 51% (€1.1 billion), mainly due to surging cocoa prices. Chocolate and confectionery exports rose 21% (€539 million), while dairy exports were up 7% (€327 million), also due to higher prices.
By contrast, cereal exports fell sharply—down €1 billion or 27%—due to lower shipments of wheat and maize, particularly to China.
Import surge led by cocoa, coffee and nuts
Rising prices for several key imports pushed EU intake to €48.1 billion in Q1 2025. Cocoa prices doubled, and coffee rose by 65%, boosting import values from major suppliers. Notable year-over-year increases came from Côte d’Ivoire (+84%, €1.2 billion) and China (+35%, €732 million).
However, imports of sugar and isoglucose declined by 39% (€197 million), and olive oil imports dropped by 32% (€167 million), reflecting reduced volumes and lower prices.
Imports from Russia and Ukraine fell, largely due to reduced trade in cereals and oilseeds.
Outlook
The EU’s agri-food trade surplus remains solid but is under pressure from elevated global commodity prices. Dairy continues to perform well on the export side, while falling cereal volumes and rising feed ingredient prices may influence feed and livestock sectors going forward.
The 1,600-square-metre facility, located at the Biopôle life science campus in Lausanne, Switzerland, will support pre-clinical research into the use of biotics and fermentation-derived ingredients to address animal health challenges.
“We are seeing significant growth in the global pet and farm animal microbiome market, as farmers and pet owners alike seek science-backed nutrition solutions to support the health and well-being of their pets and livestock,” said Nuria Miquel, senior vice president and chief science officer at ADM.
“The centre will use advanced scientific and technological tools to increase our understanding of the gut microbiome’s role in broader pet and animal health, and support our development of microbiome solutions to bring to market.”
The global market for biotics in animal feed was valued at an estimated $5.2 billion in 2024. The gut microbiome is linked to immune, digestive and absorptive functions, influencing both animal health and production efficiency.
Pet owners are also increasingly looking for functional products to support their animals’ long-term health. A global survey found that 84% of pet owners across 22 countries are interested in products that may help extend their pet’s lifespan.
ADM’s research network has studied the effects of pre-, pro- and postbiotics on companion animal health. Findings include postbiotic support for healthy blood sugar levels in adult dogs, intestinal health support in cats undergoing dietary changes, oral health benefits in dogs, and skin health support using postbiotic blends.
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