World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update  8th September 2025

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 8th September 2025

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Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks. 

The bedrock of farmland valuation in Australia started changing in 2020, on the back of global shocks and bumper crops. In this report, we zoom in on Geraldton’s port zone in Western Australia, where farmland values exhibit a growth pattern closely tied to seasonal gross margin performance. Farmland values in Geraldton's port zone are inherently tied to wheat yield potential, with a nonlinear premium observed in higher-performing zones further west. Sales data from 2022-2024 shows values rose sharply with higher yields, highlighting the structural link between revenue potential and asset value. This offers insights applicable to other regions in Australia, with adjustments for rainfall, soil, and cropping intensity.

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

    Wheat and barley: Global wheat supply remains stable post Northern Hemisphere harvest. However, sluggish export activity is adding bearish pressure on prices ahead of the Australian harvest. Carryover stocks are also weighing on sentiment and putting downward pressure on new crop prices.Canola: Canada's increased supply and loss of access to the Chinese market are about to shift global canola trade dynamics with Canadian stocks rising year on year. Trade tensions between the US and China add further uncertainty, with potential spillover effects into the canola sector.Beef: Favourable conditions – including good or improving seasons, strong US demand, and good feedlot margins – are supporting a rise in cattle prices. Optimism and buying activity may push prices higher and faster than previously expected.Sheepmeat: Lamb prices continue to drift down as slaughter capacity is adjusted and new season lambs enter the market. East-west sheep price spreads suggest that Western Australia may no longer be as attractive a market as it was during the previous restocking phase, potentially meaning a much more limited pool of replacement stock.Wool: The EMI increased 0.6% MOM. Auctions returned following the winter recess, with demand looking relatively good. On the production side, the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee recently projected a 10.2% YOY decline in 2025/26 wool production.Cotton: Although ICE #2 Cotton futures lost ground month-on-month, Australian cash prices rose modestly supported by a weaker Australian dollar. Looking ahead, the key focus will be on US weather conditions. On the demand side, the market will be closely monitoring whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates.Farm inputs: Urea prices rose in early August, driven by strong Indian import demand. However, news that China will increase its export allocations for both urea and phosphates helped ease markets later in the month.Dairy: With milk production gaining momentum in key regions, the global markets appear poised to remain well supplied with milk. As the Oceania peak approaches, commodity markets may face some downward pressure.Consumer foods: Monthly food inflation data from the ABS showed a 3% YOY increase in the food basket in July. This was down from a 3.2% rate in June. Food inflation should remain close to long-term averages in the near term.Interest rate and FX: The RBA cut the cash rate to 3.60% in August but is unlikely to deliver a follow-up cut in September. We expect three more cuts in the cycle, but only one of those to occur in 2025.Oil and freight: Oil prices fell in August as markets retraced some of the sharp gains seen in late July after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude.

World food prices hovered around their highest level in more than two years in August, as costlier meat, sugar and vegetable oil offset cheaper cereals and dairy products, Reuters reported, citing the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which measures changes in the price of a basket of food staples traded internationally, stood at 130.1 points in August, compared with a revised 130.0 in July. It was 6.9% higher than a year earlier. That was the highest since February 2023, but still 18.8% below a peak hit in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Vegetable oil prices rose 1.4% in August to their highest level in more than three years. Palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils were boosted by Indonesia’s plans to increase its biodiesel mandate, while soy oil fell on expectations of ample supply.

Indonesia is working to increase the mandatory palm oil content in its biodiesel in a bid to reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels.Cereal prices dropped for a fifth straight month, down 0.8% from July. Wheat prices fell on large harvests in the European Union and Russia. Maize prices rose, driven by higher US demand for feed and ethanol.Rice prices eased, mainly because of a fall of Indian prices to three-year lows on rupee weakness and intense competition among exporters.

The meat price index increased 0.6% to a record high, led by strong demand for beef in the United States and China.Ovine meat prices rose, pig meat was steady and poultry prices fell on abundant supplies from Brazil. Dairy prices dropped 1.3% as butter, cheese and whole milk powder quotations declined due to subdued demand from Asian markets.Sugar prices edged up 0.2% after five months of decline, as concerns over Brazilian sugarcane yields and stronger global demand outweighed improved crop prospects in India and Thailand.

In a separate report, the FAO forecast record global cereal production of 2.961 billion tonnes in 2025, up from 2.925 billion previously. Output is expected to be 3.5% higher than a year earlier, mainly due to improved maize prospects.Maize output forecasts increased in the United States, Brazil and Mexico, driven by record yields and an expanded planted area. EU production is expected to fall due to dry weather and reduced yields.

Summary -

Brazil – Soy Moratorium Reinstated
A court in Brazil has reinstated the moratorium on soybean cultivation in the Amazon after the competition regulator had lifted it. The court ruled that the decision was premature and did not take environmental issues into account. The moratorium, supported by 30 major exporters and EU pressure, prevents soybeans from being planted in deforested areas.

Turkey – Climate Hits Citrus Farmers
Turkish farmers are suffering heavily from extreme weather (frost, heatwaves, hail, and tornadoes). Up to 40% of the lemon crop has been lost, while apricot and hazelnut producers have also suffered major damage. Losses are estimated at more than $561 million.

Greece – EU Subsidy Fraud
More than $26 million of EU agricultural subsidies in Greece have been stolen through fraudulent claims. Opekepe, the agency handling the payments, is under investigation and its offices have been closed. Hundreds of farmers received funds illegally.

Norway – Salmon Exports Decline
Following a 15% Trump tariff on Norwegian products, salmon exports to the U.S. have fallen by 15%. Chile, which pays lower tariffs, is benefitting in the meantime.

France – Champagne Fraud
A French winemaker has been jailed after selling thousands of bottles of counterfeit champagne, made from Spanish wine that was carbonated. He and his wife have been fined, and their company penalized.

Austria – Hiker Killed in Cattle Attack
An 85-year-old man died after a herd of cattle charged at him and his wife in the Alps. Such incidents are becoming more frequent, and the government has already introduced behavioral guidelines for hikers.

Panama – Chiquita Returns
After a major strike, Chiquita Brands is resuming operations in Panama and rehiring up to 5,000 workers. Losses during the strike exceeded $75 million.

Australia – Young Vets Get Training Opportunity
Victoria has launched FarmVet Connect, a program where young veterinarians gain experience working with cattle and dairy farmers. The project is part of a A$15 million plan to strengthen biosecurity.

Switzerland – Starbucks Supplier Suffers
Trump’s 39% tariff on Swiss goods threatens coffee machine manufacturer Thermoplan, a key supplier to Starbucks. The company is already losing Sfr200,000 per week and is considering moving production to Germany.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 1st September 2025

The European Union has recognised Brazil as a bird-flu free country, a move that will allow the resumption of chicken meat exports to the bloc, Reuters reported, citing a post on social media X from Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro. In a subsequent statement, the agriculture ministry explained Favaro held "a high-level meeting" via videoconference with Brazil's Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Andre de Paula, and the EU's Commissioner for Animal Health and Welfare, Oliver Varhelyi.According to the ministry's statement, the European Commissioner was satisfied with information provided by Brazilian authorities related to a bird flu outbreak on a chicken breeder farm in Southern Brazil this year."Minister Favaro, I have good news: our assessment is that the data provided by your ministry is sufficient to recognize that Brazil is free of avian influenza," Varhelyi was quoted as saying in the statement."In practice, this means that we will move forward with the Member States to propose the gradual lifting of bans and restrictions on Brazilian exports, progressively reinstating all previously authorized areas," he added.Brazil reported its first ever bird flu outbreak last May, which led to several countries imposing restrictions on its chicken exports until the outbreak was controlled.China is a major chicken importer which has maintained restrictions against Brazilian poultry products after the outbreak while other nations have gradually lifted them.Through June, the European Union had imported 125,300 tons of chicken meat from Brazil, a 20.8% annual rise, generating sales of $386.3 million, according to trade data compiled by Brazil's chicken and pork lobby ABPA.

Meat prices are moving differently than usual as the summer grilling season winds down, according to Southern Ag Today (SAT/link). The report noted that “less production combined with good meat demand is certainly pressuring prices higher,” with supply constraints now outweighing the normal seasonal dip that follows Labor Day. Beef: Supply drop fuels early price spike. Normally, beef values slide after mid-year as consumers pivot to fall and winter meals. But SAT reports that “weekly beef production has been down more than 10 percent in some recent weeks compared to the same week a year ago.” That tightening supply has pushed ribeye prices up more than $3 to $14.72 per pound, while tenderloins jumped from $15 to $18.65 per pound in just weeks. Even chuck cuts are rising faster than usual, hitting $6.50 per pound. Pork: Lower production trumps seasonality. Wholesale pork prices usually peak in summer and taper off in the fall, but this year production remains below last year. SAT wrote, “It looks like more pigs per litter are not making up for fewer sows.” All pork primals are running above 2024 levels. Loins and butts are easing seasonally, but ribs, bellies, and hams have surged, underscoring pork’s volatility. Outlook. With beef and pork both showing supply-driven strength, SAT said it will turn next to poultry, especially as Thanksgiving approaches. For now, the conclusion is clear: “tighter supplies are going to outweigh seasonal patterns this Fall.”

 

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Commodities Top Performers

Zinc 1.46% 2,889.50 USD
Wheat 1.10% 184.00 EUR
Lean Hog 1.08% 0.96 USD
Soybean Meal 0.89% 282.40 USD
Silver 0.79% 41.01 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
3,586.66
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/6/2025
Palladium
1,111.00
-1.81%
-20.50
USD per Troy Ounce
9/5/2025
Platinum
1,377.50
0.44%
6.00
USD per Troy Ounce
9/5/2025
Silver
41.01
0.79%
0.32
USD per Troy Ounce
9/5/2025
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
3.03
-1.69%
-0.05
USD per MMBtu
9/5/2025
Heating Oil
60.50
-1.72%
-1.06
USD per 100 Liter
9/5/2025
Coal
94.80
-0.78%
-0.75
per Ton
9/5/2025
RBOB Gasoline
1.97
-1.81%
-0.04
per Gallone
9/5/2025
Oil (Brent)
65.67
-1.81%
-1.21
USD per Barrel
9/5/2025
Oil (WTI)
61.97
-2.15%
-1.36
USD per Barrel
9/5/2025
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,610.82
0.40%
10.51
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Lead
1,954.00
0.00%
0.00
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Copper
9,881.00
0.69%
68.00
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Nickel
15,110.00
0.27%
40.00
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Zinc
2,889.50
1.46%
41.50
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Tin
34,785.00
0.26%
90.00
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.65
-0.11%
0.00
USc per lb.
9/5/2025
Oats
3.06
-0.08%
0.00
USc per Bushel
9/2/2025
Lumber
532.00
-1.66%
-9.00
per 1.000 board feet
9/5/2025
Coffee
3.86
-0.10%
0.00
USc per lb.
9/5/2025
Cocoa
5,131.00
-0.47%
-24.00
GBP per Ton
9/5/2025
Live Cattle
2.36
-0.42%
-0.01
USD per lb.
9/5/2025
Lean Hog
0.96
1.08%
0.01
USc per lb.
9/5/2025
Corn
3.97
-0.75%
-0.03
USc per Bushel
9/5/2025
Feeder Cattle
3.60
-0.08%
0.00
USc per lb.
9/5/2025
Milk
17.65
-0.56%
-0.10
USD per cwt.sh.
9/5/2025
Orange Juice
2.48
-3.82%
-0.10
USc per lb.
9/4/2025
Palm Oil
4,380.00
0.41%
18.00
Ringgit per Ton
9/4/2025
Rapeseed
461.50
0.11%
0.50
EUR per Ton
9/5/2025
Rice
11.54
-0.43%
-0.05
per cwt.
9/5/2025
Soybean Meal
282.40
0.89%
2.50
USD per Ton
9/5/2025
Soybeans
10.15
0.54%
0.06
USc per Bushel
9/5/2025
Soybean Oil
0.51
-0.51%
0.00
USD per lb.
9/5/2025
Wheat
184.00
1.10%
2.00
USc per Ton
9/5/2025
Sugar
0.16
-0.76%
0.00
USc per lb.
9/5/20