In 2027, South Africa’s agriculture and farming sector is expected to face a challenging but manageable year, shaped by the delayed effects of an El Niño-influenced 2026/27 production season, ongoing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pressures, elevated input costs, and a continued shift toward export-led growth and productivity gains. The sector is likely to remain more resilient than the broader economy, though margins will stay tight and outcomes will depend heavily on weather realisation, disease control, and policy coordination.
A strong El Niño is projected to bring warmer and drier conditions across much of the summer rainfall region during the critical 2026/27 growing season (planting from around October 2026, with harvests extending into 2027). This raises the risk of reduced yields for rain-fed field crops such as maize, soybeans, and sunflower, with historical severe events (like 2015/16) showing potential maize yield drops of 30% or more in extreme cases.
However, the sector enters this period with important buffers: record or near-record grain and oilseed harvests in 2025/26 (around 21.5 million tonnes), improved soil moisture and dam levels from a prolonged wet season, and large carry-over stocks. These factors should support domestic supply and regional exports well into 2027, limiting immediate shortages. Any significant production shortfalls and upward pressure on food prices are more likely to emerge later in 2027 if follow-up rains are poor. Irrigated horticulture and higher-value crops may fare better, while livestock grazing could come under late-summer pressure. Field crop area is expected to remain relatively stable, with future growth relying more on yield improvements through better genetics, precision farming, and conservation practices rather than expansion.
FMD will continue to influence the red-meat sector. Beef and weaner prices are forecast to stay elevated through 2027 (for example, Absa projects Class A beef around R63.78/kg), supported by restricted animal movement and tighter supply. Two main paths are possible: one with slower export recovery if disease control remains imperfect, and another with stronger recovery if vaccination programmes and biosecurity improve sufficiently to regain better international market access.
Private-sector vaccine supply is increasing, and simplified authorisation for on-farm vaccination is in place, but coordinated mass vaccination, faster outbreak response, and stronger state–industry collaboration remain critical. Sheep and lamb prices are also expected to rise further on global supply tightness. Poultry and other intensive livestock could benefit from relatively lower feed costs if grain supplies hold, though overall animal-disease risks (including residual African swine fever concerns) will require ongoing vigilance.
Higher diesel and fertiliser prices linked to Middle East tensions are expected to squeeze planting and production margins heading into and through 2027. Weak domestic consumer demand will keep pressure on local markets, reinforcing the importance of export growth—particularly for horticulture (projected strong volume and value gains), premium beef cuts, and other higher-value products.
According to the BFAP 2026 Baseline, South African agriculture has grown roughly three times faster than the overall economy in recent years and is positioned for continued resilience over the medium term, provided it advances on exports, technology adoption, infrastructure, animal health, and inclusive transformation. The sector is in a consolidation phase after strong price cycles: cultivated area expansion slows, productivity becomes the main growth driver, and collaboration between government, industry, and farmers is essential.Local government elections in November 2026 could indirectly affect municipal-level services (roads, water, electricity) that farmers depend on. Overall, 2027 is likely to test adaptability—producers who manage water, costs, biosecurity, and market access effectively should remain competitive, while the sector as a whole continues contributing to food security, jobs, and exports, albeit under tighter conditions than the preceding bumper years.These are outlooks based on current assumptions and can shift with actual weather, disease developments, global events, or policy changes.
2027 will be just another year for our farmers who fight to survive every day — with a government that wants to take their farms and does not know what it means to be food secure. But our farmers will fight, and they will survive.
Farmers in South Africa are doers and hard workers. They produce food for the nation. Family farmers work together, teaching their sons what to expect in an El Niño year. They gather information and decide for themselves what to do. They are not among those who sit and talk for hours about farming and agriculture — they simply do not have the time.
