The index fell 1.2% month-on-month (MoM) in November and another 0.6% in December, ending the year at 124.3 points—down 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) from December 2024. For the full year 2025, the average stood at 127.2 points, up 4.3% from 2024, mainly due to higher vegetable oil and dairy prices earlier in the year.In the cereals sector, international prices showed mixed movements: the Cereal Price Index rose 1.8% MoM in November on firmer wheat (supported by Chinese demand expectations, Black Sea uncertainties, and lower Russian plantings) and maize (aided by good South American rains).
In December, cereals remained supported by supply risks like Black Sea wheat disruptions, though large harvests in Argentina and Australia provided offsets; maize stayed stable amid strong export and biofuel demand. South African domestic maize prices rose in November (up 2.2% for white and 2.3% for yellow MoM) despite a stronger rand, but fell in December (down 0.6% white and 2.9% yellow MoM) due to abundant local supply from a record-large 2024/25 harvest (revised upward to around 16.4–17.1 million tons by the Crop Estimates Committee). Year-on-year maize prices were sharply lower (down 38–45% by December), and exports reached 1.3 million tons by early January 2026, with totals projected at 2.4 million tons—below prior season levels.Vegetable oils declined globally by 2.6% MoM in November and 0.2% in December, pressured by higher palm oil output in Malaysia, strong canola and sunflower supplies, and ample Brazilian soybean oil. Soybean oil held some support from biodiesel demand.
South Africa - FOOD INFLATION BRIEF
Domestic South African oilseed prices followed suit initially (soybeans up 3.8% and sunflower 2.0% MoM in November) but softened in December amid record production (soybeans near 2.8 million tons) and a strong rand; exports surged significantly.Meat prices weakened MoM in both months internationally (mainly pig meat and poultry from ample Brazilian exports, weak Chinese pork demand, and EU supplies), though beef and ovine moderated later due to increased Australian cattle and seasonal lamb availability. In South Africa, domestic meat prices stayed elevated due to ongoing animal diseases (FMD in cattle, Rift Valley Fever in sheep, African Swine Fever in pigs), biosecurity issues, and festive demand, despite some consumer shifts to cheaper proteins like pork and poultry. Beef carcass prices rose 1.9% MoM in November but eased 2.7% in December, remaining well up YoY; weaner calves stayed buoyant.Dairy prices fell sharply MoM (3.1% in November, 4.4% in December) globally from higher EU, New Zealand, and Oceania production and subdued Asian demand, though YoY levels remained higher (especially cheese).
Domestically, raw milk producer prices edged up slightly in November, supported by seasonal summer peaks, but the sector faced FMD impacts in key areas like Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, leading to herd reductions and output losses.Fresh produce saw lower YoY prices for major vegetables in South Africa: potatoes, tomatoes, and onions dropped significantly in November (37%, 18%, and 19% YoY respectively) and mostly continued lower in December (potatoes 21%, tomatoes 25% down YoY; onions up 9% YoY on demand). High volumes from rainfall boosted supplies and pressured markets, with holiday disruptions adding to stock build-ups. Fruit prices weakened overall—apples declined YoY and MoM on subdued demand and possible diverted export volumes; bananas faced pressure from high stocks; avocados traded sideways YoY despite higher sales, influenced by international export competition from Peru.Overall, abundant global and local supplies, combined with a stronger rand and disease challenges in livestock, drove easing trends in many South African commodity prices toward year-end 2025, though some sectors like meat and dairy held firm due to supply constraints.
