Some were associated with El Niño, a natural climate pattern that develops when sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This changes global weather patterns and often increases the risk of below-average rainfall and higher temperatures in southern Africa.
As South Africa enters the 2026/27 summer production season, the concern is once again growing. The South African Weather Service has warned that the developing El Niño could become exceptionally strong, with below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures expected across much of the country. This is a serious warning for farmers, but it is important to understand what happened during previous events and what the history can teach us.
One of the most damaging El Niño-related droughts occurred during 1982/83/84/85 and more. South Africa experienced serious rainfall shortages, particularly in important summer-cropping areas. Maize production suffered substantial losses, grazing deteriorated, water supplies came under pressure and livestock farmers struggled to find enough feed. The consequences extended beyond the farm gate, affecting rural businesses, agricultural income and food supplies. The eastern parts of South Africa had good seasons and the west very bad.
Another El Niño developed during 1986/87 and continued into 1987/88. Drought conditions returned to parts of southern Africa, including South Africa. However, the rainfall pattern was not consistently dry throughout the entire period. In fact, the 1987/88 season also experienced significant rainfall and flooding in parts of South Africa as the El Niño weakened. This is an important lesson: an El Niño event does not automatically mean that every farming region will experience drought throughout the season.
The 1991/92 El Niño brought another devastating drought. South African maize production fell sharply, with the crop estimated at approximately 3.3 million tonnes. Farmers experienced serious production losses, and the country faced significant pressure on food supplies.
The drought of 2014–2016 is particularly important because it demonstrates how damaging two difficult seasons can be for agriculture.
The first season, 2014/15, already brought below-average rainfall in several areas. Conditions deteriorated further during 2015/16 as a very strong El Niño developed. The year 2015 was reported as South Africa's driest year at that time, with national rainfall approximately 34% below the long-term average.
The impact on maize production was severe. In 2015/16, the United States Department of Agriculture estimated that South African maize production could fall to 6.5 million tonnes, approximately 47% below the five-year average. The western Free State and North West, two important maize-producing regions, were among the hardest hit.
Farmers had to reduce planting, abandon some fields and cope with poor yields. Livestock producers faced shrinking grazing, expensive supplementary feed and water shortages. Some farmers struggled to service their debt, while farm workers and rural communities also felt the consequences.
Research has estimated that between 2014 and 2016 annual maize production decreased by approximately 50% and wheat production by 23%. The national livestock herd also declined by about 7% between 2015 and 2018, with drought contributing to the pressure.
These figures show that drought is not simply a matter of receiving less rain. It affects production, cash flow, employment, food prices, exports, livestock numbers and the long-term financial stability of farming businesses.
The important distinction is that drought can occur without El Niño, and El Niño does not always cause drought in every part of South Africa. Other climate systems, local weather patterns and the timing of rainfall also influence the outcome.
The current warning deserves serious attention. The South African Weather Service has indicated that the developing 2026/27 El Niño could become very strong. Its seasonal outlook favours below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over much of South Africa, particularly during the October-to-December 2026 and November 2026-to-January 2027 periods. October was already drier and warmer than expected earlier in the season. Does this mean the traditional rainy season in an El Niño system ended earlier this year?Many summer grain farmers already started planting in September after good rainfall occurred in places.
The good rainfall that month essentially dried up in October, and even less than 100 mm of rain was measured in October in places in the eastern production areas.Meanwhile, forecasts that indicated good rainfall could occur in the first ten days of November over parts of the summer rainfall area have weakened. Forecasts do indicate that planting rain could occur in the second half of November,
The Southern African Development Community has also warned of an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern region. However, seasonal forecasts describe probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. Conditions can change, and rainfall can differ significantly between provinces and even neighbouring farming areas.
Farmers should therefore avoid panic, but they should not ignore the warning. Soil moisture conservation, careful planting decisions, suitable cultivars, responsible water use and realistic livestock numbers will be important. Farmers should monitor updated forecasts and make decisions according to conditions on their own farms.
History has shown that the cost of drought is measured in much more than lost crops. It can take several years for a farming business to recover from one or two bad seasons. Debt increases, machinery and infrastructure need maintenance, livestock numbers decline and working capital becomes difficult to replace.
Government, agricultural organisations, financial institutions and farmers must work together before conditions become critical. Early warning systems, water infrastructure, responsible land management, access to finance and practical drought-support programmes should form part of a long-term agricultural strategy.
South Africa cannot control El Niño, but it can prepare for its possible consequences. The experiences of 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 and especially 2014–2016 should remind us that preparation is not optional.
The only people who truly understand what a drought means, and what El Niño can do to South Africa, are the farmers who experience it firsthand. They and their families know what it means to watch the rain clouds pass without bringing rain, to see dams and rivers dry up, grazing disappear and crops fail. They know the pressure of keeping livestock alive, paying workers, meeting financial commitments and finding enough money to plant again.
But the impact does not stop at the farm gate. Entire rural communities, farm workers, local businesses and small towns feel the consequences. Every farmer and every farming family has their own story, their own statistics and their own memories of how they survived the difficult seasons. These are the people who understand the real cost of drought, because they have lived through it. Their experience is a reminder that behind every production figure is a human story of hardship, courage, sacrifice and determination to survive.
The question is not whether South Africa will experience another difficult season. The question is whether our farmers, government and agricultural support systems are sufficiently prepared to protect food production, farming businesses and rural livelihoods when the rain does not arrive on time.
This is summary- just a overview- Real data will confirm.
