Things are not looking good for the U.S. farm economy.

US consumers would run out of avocados in three weeks if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to close down the US–Mexico border.

Trump said on Friday that there was a “very good likelihood” he would close the border this week if Mexico did not stop immigrants from reaching the United States.

'We're one community': border cities fear Trump's crackdown

But a complete shutdown would disrupt millions of legal border crossings in addition to asylum seekers, as well as billions of dollars in trade, about $137bn of which is in food imports.

From the avocados on avocado toast, to the limes and tequila in margaritas, the US is heavily reliant on Mexican imports of fruit, vegetables and alcohol to meet consumer demand.

Nearly half of all imported US vegetables and 40% of imported fruit are grown in Mexico, according to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture.

Avocados would run out in three weeks if imports from Mexico were stopped, said Steve Barnard, president and chief executive of Mission Produce, the largest distributor and grower of avocados in the world.

“You couldn’t pick a worse time of year because Mexico supplies virtually 100% of the avocados in the US right now. California is just starting and they have a very small crop, but they’re not relevant right now and won’t be for another month or so,” said Barnard.

Monica Ganley, principal at Quarterra, a consultancy specializing in Latin American agricultural issues and trade, said that a border closure would inevitably hit consumers.

“We’re absolutely going to see higher prices. This is a very real and very relevant concern for American consumers.”

The US and Mexico trade about $1.7bn in goods daily, according to the US Chamber of Commerce, which said closing the border would be “an unmitigated economic debacle” that would threaten 5m American jobs.

The effects of a shutdown would run both ways.

Mexico is the largest importer of US exports of refined fuels like diesel and gasoline, some of which moves by rail. It is unclear if rail terminals would be affected by closures.

Mexico's avocado army: how one city stood up to the drug cartels

As changing palates have increased demand for fresh produce, and a greater variety of it, the United States has increasingly come to depend on Mexico to meet that need.

Imports have nearly tripled since 1999. In that period, Mexico has gone from supplying less than a third of imported produce to 44% today.

In addition to avocados, the majority of imported tomatoes, cucumbers, blackberries and raspberries come from Mexico. While there are other producers of these goods globally, opening those trade channels would take time, said Ganley.

Weekly Updated Agri Trends of ABSA -Local prices this week were down on average for all commodities.

The contrast couldn’t be starker. As U.S. President Donald Trump’s government continues to champion isolationism and undermine decades-old international relationships, China is rolling out its Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, a project to build a new “Silk Road” that could change the meaning of globalization itself.

The hardening positions by the US and China on their year-old trade war ahead of high-stakes talks in Washington, will likely have an impact on June’s petrol price in South Africa, along with the introduction of a carbon tax by the local government.

As an importer of oil products, South Africa is already sensitive to changes in the international oil price.

This week, US president Donald Trump threw trade talks between the world’s two largest economies into disarray as he threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, roiling global markets.

Trump threatened not only to more than double tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the US, but also raised the possibility of imposing a 25% tariff on an additional $325 billion of goods.

Bloomberg reported that China’s top trade envoy, vice premier Liu He, is due to land in the US capital on Thursday afternoon and go immediately into discussions with Trump’s top negotiator, Robert Lighthizer.

And trade war concerns, along with a global oversupply of oil, has caused Brent crude prices down towards $70 a barrel.

Impact on South Africa

For South Africa, a drop in oil prices would point to a short-term win. According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) of South Africa, the most recent drop in the price is having a net positive effect on the outlook for local petrol prices.

The face of HIV in the United States has long been white gay men, even though the epidemic has had a devastating and disproportionate impact on African-American communities.

We’re used to seeing some strange things emanate from the Twitter account of Donald Trump. By all means, he is the world’s first “social media president”. But the divisive politician managed to send South Africa into a frenzy last year when he weighed-in on the land expropriation debate.

South Africans need not fear Brexit as it will be good for this country, UK High Commissioner to South Africa Nigel Casey insists.

Given the change in global agricultural production and trade patterns that followed the Carter grain embargo in 1980, it is worth considering what changes may emerge in the years after the Trump era tariffs.

Met die uitbreek van die Tweede Wêreldoorlog (WO2) was die Verenigde State van Amerika ‘n buitestaander, maar is met die aanval op Pearl Harbour tot optrede en deelname gedwing.

ill another Donald Trump presidency be good or bad for South Africa? No one seems sure, not even the South African government.

“Industrial agriculture” is a phrase used to signify “bad,” evoking toxic chemicals, monoculture crops, confined animals, the death of the small family farm and all kinds of images people don’t like to associate with their food. Factory farms are a constant target of environmentalists, documentarians, animal rights activists, spiritual leaders like Pope Francis and the Indian mystic Sadhguru, and leftist politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders.

The prospect of new tariff disputes following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in the United States, ongoing geopolitical tensions and continued climate change-related challenges are expected to significantly impact agricultural trade and producer profitability worldwide in the upcoming year, according to a Rabobank report.

Many US midwestern grain farmers will lose money this year after reaping a bumper crop, and the outlook for their future income is bleak.

For a US president who is publicly threatening to take Greenland and Panama by military force – and also to annex Canada through crippling economic pressure – kicking South Africa out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), or even trashing the whole programme, would clearly be small change. 

US President Donald Trump’s likely Africa team is not looking favourable to South Africa (SA). How it might impact the rest of the continent though, is more ambiguous.

Now that US President Donald Trump has followed through with his election promise to impose tariffs on imports from Canada (25%), Mexico (25%) and China (10%), what can we expect next? And how should organized agriculture businesses and the South African government prepare for this new normal?

In recent developments, former U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to halt all future U.S. assistance to South Africa in response to the country's new land expropriation policies.

US President Donald Trump’s comments about the Expropriation Act (which will not result in land being taken for nil compensation unless it has been abandoned) are a deliberate dog-whistle to his voters.

President Donald Trump’s second term in office and his threats should not be taken lightly because he is acting on his promises this time, which should be sufficient for other countries he has mentioned in passing or during conversations.