Decades of petrochemical overcapacity and reliance on low-cost, globally concentrated supply created hidden fragilities in the resin market.
The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz exposed these weaknesses, reshaping supply dynamics, tightening availability, and forcing packaging producers to reassess resilience, sourcing strategies, and long-term supply security.The global resin market did not become structurally fragile overnight, nor did it become fragile because of a single actor. Three decades of rational investment decisions across the Persian Gulf, the US, and China created structural oversupply and geographic concentration of production in global resin markets. Then, on February 28, 2026, US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the structural vulnerability that years of cheap, abundant resin had made easy to ignore became a logistical problem overnight. This report explores how we got here, and what producers can do now to diversify supply and improve resilience.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -22th June 2026
Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales
Beef: Net sales of 21,300 MT for 2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (7,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (1,200 MT). Exports of 13,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT). Export Adjustments: Accumulated exports of beef were adjusted down 2,300 MT to Vietnam (58 MT), Canada (368 MT), Egypt (424 MT), Japan (141 MT), Italy (155 MT), Kuwait (176 MT), Mexico (177 MT), Morrocco (218 MT), Oman (63 MT), Qatar (215 MT), Saudi Arabia (128 MT), and South Korea (177 MT) for week ending June 4. These exports were reported in error.
Pork: Net sales of 26,200 MT for 2026 were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (9,700 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan (3,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Total net sales of 200 MT for 2027 were for Australia. Exports of 32,000 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,900 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (3,400 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Colombia (1,500 MT).
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/18/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.5550. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5838 (-0.0827). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4600 and 40# blocks at $1.4500. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4300 (-0.0240) and blocks $1.4631 ( 0.0184). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.6400. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.6725 (-0.1970). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6800. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6831 (+0.0061).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders in the East region report domestic butter demand is strong. Stakeholders in the Central and West regions report domestic butter demand is steady. Export butter demand varies from steady to lighter throughout the country. Spot cream loads are available. Demand from butter manufacturers is stronger. Butter production remains stable. Many facilities are running churns close to capacity. 80 and 82 percent butterfat butter loads are available for spot buyers. Bulk butter overages range from 4 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: East region milk supplies for cheese plants remain steady as the spring flush ends and temperatures normalize. Component yields dipped earlier than expected this year but haven't affected cheese output or quality. Production runs seven days a week, though seasonal demand is softer than usual. Central region milk output is strong as cheesemakers lean on internal supplies. There are fewer discounted Class III offers, with prices from $2 under to $0.50 over. Production stays busy with more barrels, steady domestic demand, and strong Mexican export interest. West region milk and cream supplies meet cheesemakers' needs, as spot milk availability is mixed. Production is steady, inventories tight, and spot cheese accessible. Domestic and international demand is steady.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production is generally down nationwide. Some regions are still seeing strong farm volumes, but most are down as summer temperatures begin to take hold. Class I demand is soft, with most educational institutions off for the summer. Milk that was originally destined for bottling is being diverted predominantly to Class II and IV use. Class II production is seasonally strong as ice cream makers are working to meet peak demand. Class III demand is steady. Cheesemakers are reporting fewer spot sales of milk this week. Spot prices for Class III milk range from $2-under to $0.50 over Class. Class IV demand is steady this week. Some facilities are taking in spot loads of cream and milk to offset any downtime issues in other facilities. Butter and powder production are steady despite falling prices. Condensed skim demand is strong, particularly in the Northeast. Buyers are having difficulty securing spot loads of condensed skim. Condensed skim prices range from $1.70 - $2.16 for Class III and $2.08 - $2.55 for Class II. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.28 – 1.52 in the East; 1.10 – 1.42 in the Midwest; 1.02 – 1.24 in the West. DRY
PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices declined sharply across all heat levels and regions, with the most significant decreases occurring at high-heat levels nationwide. Dry buttermilk prices were steady in the Central and East regions, while the West region decreased across the full price series. Dry whey prices were steady in all regions, with only slight increases noted at the top of the range in the Central region and at the bottom of the range in the East. Lactose prices moved higher throughout the price range, while the mostly range held steady. Whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% increased at the top of the price range and remained unchanged elsewhere. Dry whole milk prices eased at both ends of the range. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS
WEST EUROPE: The number of dairy farms in the United Kingdom has fallen below 7,000 for the first time, reflecting a long-term trend of industry consolidation and structural change. European dairy markets have shown signs of stabilizing in recent weeks after an extended period of price weakness, with values for several key commodities finding firmer footing. While milk supplies remain ample across much of the region, improved demand and a slowdown in price declines have helped support market sentiment.
EAST EUROPE: Productivity gains and ongoing farm consolidation have supported production despite declining cow numbers, while a growing share of milk is being directed toward cheese manufacturing. Latvia has expanded its dairy processing capacity with the opening of a new cheese facility designed to handle significant volumes of milk and support growing export demand.
OCEANIA
AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia recently published new data on packaged milk sales. In April 2026, total packaged milk sales reached 191.0 million liters, an increase of 1.7 million liters year-over-year (YoY). Packaged milk sales year-to-date (YTD) for Australia's 2025/2026 season total 1,968.6 million liters, up 23.3 million liters (1.2 percent) season-over-season. Dairy Australia also released updated export data showing that milk export volumes from July 2025 through April 2026 totaled 139,822 metric tons, a 15.2 percent increase compared to the same period a year earlier.
NEW ZEALAND: The group's 2025/2026 season milk price forecast remains at $9.74/kilograms of milk solid. The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) released its latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report. For the year ending June 30, 2026, New Zealand's food and fiber sector is projected to generate $64.3 billion in revenue, representing 82 percent of the country's total exports. Dairy revenue is forecast to rise 5 percent to a record $28.6 billion.
SOUTH AMERICA: Milk production is lighter in South America as herds shift into a lower seasonal output period. Year-over-year milk production is up, but gains are slowing. An El Niño system is anticipated in 2026, which would increase precipitation in key dairy areas to above average figures. Production of dairy products such as skim milk powder, whole milk powder, and cheese are somewhat lighter as seasonal milk production changes take place. No changes in demand for skim milk powder or whole milk powder are reported by stakeholders.
Foodborne pathogens account for approximately 420,000 deaths and 600 million cases of illness annually, but current food safety regulations are often based on ultra-sensitive tests that focus on detecting pathogens, regardless of the relative threat to consumers.
A study led by Cornell researchers suggests that these ultrasensitive tests, with “zero-detection” expectations, may be pushing edible food into the trash, driving up costs with limited public health benefits and causing other consequences that can negatively impact the environment and human health.
“Although the public expects food to be completely safe, there will always be some risk of foodborne illness,” said lead author Martin Wiedmann, Ph.D. ’97, the Gellert Family Professor in Food Safety in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS). “Just as we don’t limit highway speeds to 10 miles per hour to minimize deaths, we need to take a balanced approach that considers possible negative consequences of extreme food safety measures.”
The research, published March 16 in Frontiers in Science, argues that food safety regulations should set evidence-based targets for food that is sufficiently safe rather than aiming for zero risk, which is neither achievable nor desirable. Similarly, food safety practices should focus on targeting the highest risks.
The study details how hazard-based rules – those that treat any detection of a pathogen as unacceptable regardless of dose, exposure, or a food’s capacity to support microbial growth – can trigger alarms out of proportion to the actual risk to consumers. In some cases, ultra-sensitive tests flag miniscule amounts of microorganisms or toxins that are unlikely to cause disease.
This can result in the disposal of food that would have been safe to eat, as well as reduced availability and acceptance of nutritious food products, leading to unnecessary recalls that erode consumer trust. Recalls may be instituted, due to an abundance of caution, simply because bacteria similar to disease-causing organisms are found in fields or processing facilities.
Beyond ultra-sensitive testing, the study authors point to additional protective measures that can raise energy use, increase costs and diminish nutritional quality when applied indiscriminately. Colder storage temperatures, additional packaging and more aggressive heat treatments are important safeguards but should be calibrated to achieve an acceptable or tolerable level of risk, accounting for environmental, economic and nutritional trade-offs.
“There’s well-established evidence that focusing on end-product testing is generally ineffective to ensure safety,” said co-author Sriya Sunil ’19, Ph.D. ’24, a postdoctoral researcher in food science (CALS). “Overemphasis on end-product testing may distract from other food safety measures that can provide greater public health benefits.”
To counter this, the team advocates for a shift from hazard-based approaches to targeted risk-based approaches, which consider the likelihood of human illness when implementing food safety measures. However, even current risk-based approaches may fall short with regards to broader societal goals, including those related to sustainability.
For example, lowering the refrigeration temperature for foods can minimize safety risks, but may increase energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers found that a truly risk-based approach for food safety should align with broader societal priorities around sustainable, nutritious and secure food systems, to identify acceptable or tolerable risks.
To help establish acceptable or tolerable risks, they said, computational tools can be used that incorporate vast amounts of information about food safety risks in the food system, as well as associated environmental and economic costs.
While there is value in having consistent food safety standards that align with societal priorities, particularly for global trade purposes, it requires balancing competing interests of different individuals and societies. Further development of risk-based systems will require broader academic, government and industry-based cooperation.
“Specialists across social sciences, economics, and life sciences must work together to establish values that align with consumers’ priorities,” Wiedmann said.
Flemish farming association Boerenbond expects the heatwave to reduce both milk and meat production, though it is too early to give precise figures, a spokesperson said.
Sander Palmans, 35, director of the Agricultural Research and Education Center and a farmer in Bocholt near the Dutch border, said his cows and pigs were suffering from heat stress.
While he uses cooling techniques such as fans to help the animals, the temperatures, which are expected to reach up to 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), are taking a toll.
Palmans said his cows were less active, ate less and avoided lying down on the warm bedding, all leading to less milk production. Pigs were also affected, with growth down by about 150 grams per day, cutting meat output.
"The heat costs us between €150 and €200 a day," or 10 to 15% of Palmans' income, he said.
The Flemish agriculture ministry said the heatwave across much of Europe was affecting mainly livestock farmers, as recent rainfall meant drought was not yet a major concern for crop producers.
"Despite all the measures farmers are taking ... you can still see production declining," said Mark Wulfrancke, a spokesperson for Belgian farmers' association Algemeen Boerensyndicaat.
In France, extreme heat killed hundreds of thousands of poultry, while reducing feed intake, increasing water demand and cutting milk output for cattle farmers.
Palmans expects heatwaves to become more regular, which means more frequent use of artificial cooling systems. He said the inlet temperature for livestock housing might need to be reduced by as much as 8 C.
"Today it's an investment for just a few days a year, but we see that hot days are increasing," he said.
Commodity Prices
