El NINO is with us and will get stronger towards the end of 2026
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In the late 1970s, the Free State had a very wet year that produced excellent crops. The harvests in 1980 and 1981 were particularly good. The silos were full, trucks were queuing for miles, and farmers were extremely busy. Before noon, every wagon and truck was already loaded.Then El Niño arrived. At the time, we didn’t even know what El Niño was. It brought seven years of severe drought and real suffering. Where we used to average six tons per hectare, yields dropped to below two tons in many seasons. It was a very difficult time.But we survived.
After those seven tough years, some farmers managed to pay off their debts with just one good harvest. Back then, the banks and cooperatives were much more supportive of farmers than they are today. Things have changed a lot since then.Looking ahead, with the latest weather patterns and information available for 2026 to 2067, we believe there will still be good years. God is still good, and the water tables in the Free State remain strong.
The whole of South Africa and its farmers can tell their stories about drought and the suffering that came with it. But after all these years, not a single South African could say there was not enough food to buy and enjoy. South Africa will always be FOOD SECURED with our UNIQUE farmers.
There are countless stories from 7 years of real drought in the Free State. But we always say it: we have the best farmers in the world, and they never give up. If banks and corporates truly walked in a farmer’s shoes, they’d understand there are seasons in the universe that are dry, and seasons that are wet. Don’t just look at the numbers. Look at the "JOCKEY" Too many farmers have lost their farms because banks and corporates refused to give them a second chance.
The rapid development of this El Niño could also result in further rainfall over the summer rainfall region during winter.“All indications are that the El Niño phenomenon for the 2026–27 season will be one of the five strongest in the past century,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.According to the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% chance that a “super” El Niño could develop during the 2026–27 summer season. Sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region in the Pacific were already 1.1 °C above normal in the second-last week of June.
In the Niño 1+2 regions closest to South America, sea surface temperatures were already 2.4 °C above normal.Van den Berg says the sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are already warmer than they were during the previous strong or “super” El Niño in June 2015. The warming in this region already represents a moderate El Niño. “Everything points to the current El Niño being one of the strongest ever recorded. It is going to create unique challenges this year
.”Distinction Between a Strong El Niño and Its Climate Impact
Van den Berg stresses the importance of distinguishing between the strength of an El Niño event and its actual impact on climate conditions. “That is, how warm the surface water in the central Pacific is, and how strong its effect on the climate will be.”Although the previous three “super” El Niño events caused very dry and hot conditions (the seasons of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16), they were not the driest years in history. During other moderate to strong El Niño events, such as the 1991–92 and 1994–95 seasons, even less total rainfall was recorded.Van den Berg notes that in January 2016, during the previous “super” El Niño, more than 100 mm of rain fell in Upington.
Van den Berg stresses the importance of distinguishing between the strength of an El Niño event and its actual impact on climate conditions. “That is, how warm the surface water in the central Pacific is, and how strong its effect on the climate will be.”Although the previous three “super” El Niño events caused very dry and hot conditions (the seasons of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16), they were not the driest years in history. During other moderate to strong El Niño events, such as the 1991–92 and 1994–95 seasons, even less total rainfall was recorded.Van den Berg notes that in January 2016, during the previous “super” El Niño, more than 100 mm of rain fell in Upington.
“The major problem with nearly all El Niño events is that weaker rainfall usually occurs during the critical growth stages of summer grains from mid-January to the end of March. If the pre-season was not too dry or if there is sufficient stored soil moisture from the previous season, it can mitigate the impact of dry conditions during that specific period.”Furthermore, a major danger of El Niño events in the past decade or two is the extremely high temperatures that accompany them due to the effects of climate change.“This is already evident from the record temperatures currently being experienced in Europe. This, rather than a lack of rain, will likely have a greater impact on agricultural production in South Africa during the coming summer season.
”Impact on Wheat Production
Van den Berg says that while the El Niño is still developing, it has already influenced rainfall in the summer rainfall region. “It increases the chance of above-average rainfall into spring. This naturally poses a major risk to the maize harvesting process, with many fields still too wet to harvest. The wet conditions also mean that irrigated maize could not yet be harvested, which increases pressure on farmers to prepare fields for winter wheat planting.”The current wet conditions and expected rain into spring could create favourable opportunities to consider dryland winter wheat in the summer rainfall region. “Farmers must, however, ensure they have sufficient soil moisture to plant wheat,” says Van den Berg.“
Van den Berg says that while the El Niño is still developing, it has already influenced rainfall in the summer rainfall region. “It increases the chance of above-average rainfall into spring. This naturally poses a major risk to the maize harvesting process, with many fields still too wet to harvest. The wet conditions also mean that irrigated maize could not yet be harvested, which increases pressure on farmers to prepare fields for winter wheat planting.”The current wet conditions and expected rain into spring could create favourable opportunities to consider dryland winter wheat in the summer rainfall region. “Farmers must, however, ensure they have sufficient soil moisture to plant wheat,” says Van den Berg.“
It can be a high-risk strategy if marginal lands with less stored moisture are planted. Farmers should still consider planting summer grains on good fields in the coming summer, especially because one of the big risks for winter wheat in the interior is excessive rain during harvest time in November and December.” Van den Berg notes that this risk is smaller this year due to the expected strong El Niño phenomenon.
Analysts are concerned about the expected strong El Niño and its possible effects on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027. The phenomenon is forecast to affect the 2026-27 summer crop season starting in October.
However, two important factors may soften the impact. First, the country has benefited from recent longer-than-normal La Niña rainfall, which has significantly improved soil moisture and dam levels. This means farmers will start the new season with better soil conditions and water reserves, which could support crops even if rainfall is below average.
Second, South Africa has just harvested its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop. Maize production alone reached a record 17.25 million tons, well above the country’s annual consumption of around 12 million tons. Combined with strong carryover stocks, this creates large grain supplies heading into the new season.While the coming El Niño is not ideal and may still cause challenges for farmers, the improved starting conditions and ample grain stocks mean the situation is different from previous severe droughts. Food price inflation may therefore not rise as sharply as some fear.
Two United Nations agencies have issued a joint appeal for funds ahead of the expected impact on millions of poor people of the El Niño weather phenomenon later this year and into 2027.
El Niño, which occurs every few years, brings floods to some parts of the world and drought to others, including Southern Africa. This year’s El Niño is expected to be particularly harsh, leading to the joint appeal from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Food Programme. This is the first time they have sought funds ahead of an expected humanitarian disaster, instead of reacting afterwards.
They are looking for a $202-milliion fund which they say would enable them to protect 8.8 million food-insecure people at risk from the predicted El Niño impacts. “Strong El Niño conditions are developing, threatening food security, agriculture and livelihoods across multiple regions into 2027,” the agencies said.
“This El Niño is expected to bring significantly drier conditions to Southern Africa, Central America, parts of Asia and the Pacific, and Eastern Africa, while increasing the likelihood of floods and storms in the Horn of Africa and parts of Asia.” Prioritised high-risk countries include Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
Anticipatory actions include cash transfers, seeds of drought-tolerant or flood-resistant varieties, livestock support, and flood defences or water storage systems. “For a vulnerable family, this means the difference between hunger and food on the table, a failed harvest or a productive one, and children who receive daily milk or go without it,” the agencies stated.
Stressing the need for urgent “anticipatory action at scale”, they said El Niño was converging with the economic consequences of the Iran conflict. “Soaring food, fuel and fertiliser prices are already undermining food production and access in some of the world’s most vulnerable, food-insecure countries”.
Don’t be scared by El Niño and the endless stories from certain economists and people who know nothing about farming trying to scare farmers with their predictions.
All you need to do is take note: this is the universe, this is the weather, and it can change at any time. You have the knowledge and years of experience. Trust your gut and take notice, but don’t rely on apps and AI. It is man-made. You know nature and you know your farm and you soil.
Do not stop believing- and asked the farmers who know what "drought "can do-
