Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Canola crushing is not only an oil story. Once meal is properly considered, the question becomes how to connect surplus seed with oil demand and protein feed demand at a profitable netback.Canola crushing is not only an oil story. Once meal is properly considered, the question becomes how to connect surplus seed with oil demand and protein feed demand at a profitable netback. Western Australia (WA) offers the largest exportable canola surplus and limited existing crush capacity, while eastern Australia and New Zealand provide the largest nearby demand pool for incremental canola meal.
The import pool of feed is already large. Australia and New Zealand already import a sizeable feed-protein pool that can serve as a benchmark for canola meal demand. Together, the two markets imported around 2.3m tonnes of canola meal equivalent in the form of soybean meal and palm kernel expeller (PKE). Converted back into seed, this equates to approximately 4.1m tonnes of canola crush equivalent.
Import replacement could materially lift crush. This pool could support up to 2m tonnes of additional Australian canola crush, more than twice the current installed capacity of about 1.6m tonnes. Against a future canola production baseline of around 7m tonnes, this would lift domestic processing from roughly 25% of production today to around 50%, putting Australia’s crushing industry closer to international benchmarks. In Canada, crush is projected to reach about 64% of the national crop in 2026/27.
Import substitution is the first scalable meal opportunity. Existing feed-import channels provide a practical route for canola meal allocation. The key commercial challenge is to place canola meal at a competitive level against soybean meal, PKE, and other feed ingredients on a delivered nutrient-value basis. Recent prices across the Tasman show that canola meal can substitute for some, but not all, soybean meal and PKE on a nutrient-value basis.
Meal logistics are central to the crush case. The Australian East Coast and New Zealand are central to the meal solution. New South Wales and Victoria are closer to domestic feed demand, while New Zealand is a large structural importer of feed ingredients. WA has several supply-side characteristics that support the new-crush case. The state has Australia’s largest exportable canola surplus, limited existing crush capacity, and strong oil-export pathways or biorefinery greenfield optionality. Reduced meal consumption does not remove WA’s advantage, but it requires consistent meal logistics into eastern Australia and New Zealand, or to Southeast Asia.
Livestock sectors, led by dairy and beef, offer the strongest demand outlook. Canola meal’s largest addressable pool exists in Australia and New Zealand’s dairy and beef industries, supported by large herd scale and established feed demand. Poultry uptake is likely to remain selective, due to canola meal’s higher fibre content relative to soybean meal.
The feedback loop is material. More crushing supports more stable seed demand. More stable seed demand can support price baseline and planted area. Larger and more reliable canola supply improves crushing viability. More crushing also produces more canola meal, reinforcing the strategy’s two-sided value: local crush can stabilise canola demand, while local meal can improve feed availability and reduce exposure to imported protein-meal prices.
Nutrient density is becoming an important lens in the US food sector, shaping how consumers think about value, health, and product choice. For cold storage, this is not a simple volume-growth story, but we believe the shift will support above-trend cold-chain demand across both fresh and frozen categories. It should also create new revenue opportunities at a time when the North American cold storage sector is working through overcapacity and subdued occupancy.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - 10 Augustus 2026
John Deere has launched a new 3-cylinder model in its 5E Series tractor lineup, and for the first time it includes an electronically controlled, clutchless eHydro hydrostatic transmission — a feature previously only available on Deere’s compact tractors.According to Mark Davey, go-to-market manager for the 5 Series, the goal was to create an intuitive, easy-to-operate option for a bigger, higher-capacity utility tractor with more weight and lift capacity than past eHydro models.Why it matters: Tractors with eHydro are easier for novice operators to learn. Deere’s internal studies found new operators master the eHydro 25% faster than standard transmissions. That could help producers dealing with labour shortages.The new 3-cylinder 5Es range from 50 to 75 horsepower and come in four models. The 5050E is geared for mowing, small loads and seasonal property work, while the 5075E is built for dairy and livestock operations. Four-cylinder models are also available.The transmission uses two foot pedals and gear selection, with no clutch needed. Davey says it’s especially useful for loader work — you can enter a pile, lift, pivot your foot to reverse, and dump material quickly. The tractor has a hitch lift capacity of 3,192 pounds.Older transmission options like Sync Shuttle and Power Reverser are still offered on the 5E 3-cylinder.
l Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. “During October-December 2026 season, there is 69 per cent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the weather forecaster added. El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others. Coupled with man-made climate change it adds to the risk of extreme weather. Japan’s Meteorological Agency on Monday said there was a 100 per cent chance that the El Niño phenomenon will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into early 2027. The powerful El Niño weather event could push nearly 49 million more people into acute food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Programme said earlier this month. Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland, said confidence was low, but the body’s forecasters expected El Niño to peak near the end of this year, then subside “later in the winter and next spring”.
Anxiety is building among farmers and ag groups on both sides of the Canada-US border ahead of the Trump administration’s August 19 tariffs deadline.On July 20, President Donald Trump signed executive orders imposing new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act. He cited disadvantages to US exporters, specifically calling out Canada’s auto tariffs, dairy restrictions, and provincial limits on US alcohol. The new levies would hit many products covered by CUSMA, including dairy and alcohol, while exempting energy, potash, fish and “critical minerals.”Why it matters: These tariffs could sidestep CUSMA and threaten agriculture and food industries across North America. Negotiators from both countries say they’re working to reach a deal before Wednesday to avoid them. Trump has also said he won’t extend CUSMA beyond its 2036 expiry.Industry groups are warning of fallout. The Associated Equipment Distributors, representing $100 billion in annual revenue and 140,000 jobs across 7,200 locations, told Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney that the North American equipment sector is “fully integrated” and that a trade breakdown would be damaging. They also urged Canada’s trade minister Dominic LeBlanc to push for a quick resolution.On dairy, Ontario policy analyst Al Mussell says the US is pressuring Canada to open its market further, but US milk quality standards have slipped. In a Aug 14 note, he argued the US now has a “bifurcated” system where much milk wouldn’t meet Canadian safety standards, and federal cuts to lab proficiency testing undermine confidence in US Grade A milk. He recommends Canada seek renewed US funding for testing, a review of US standards, and labeling for US dairy imports that don’t meet Grade A.Bottom line: With the deadline days away, the dispute risks disrupting integrated ag and equipment trade, and the dairy fight is now also about product standards, not just market access.
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) on Friday cut its 2026 production estimates for wheat by half a million metric tons to 9 million tons and for barley by nearly a million tons to 6.1 million tons. Canola suffered less of a revision, with GIWA reducing its production forecast by 50,000 tons to 4.3 million tons. Wheat and barley production is set to fall far below last year’s levels. Western Australia in 2025 produced 13.3 million tons of wheat, 7.6 million tons of barley and 4.4 million tons of canola, according to GIWA.
“Grain production potential has fallen away over the last month due to the ongoing dry conditions over large areas of the southern Kwinana South port zone, the Great Southern and Lakes Districts,” GIWA said in a monthly crop report. Other cropping zones were in better shape but cold weather was raising frost risk, it said, warning of “a very nervous few weeks” if weather patterns don’t change. GIWA said wheat yields will be capped due to a lack of fertiliser after many farmers chose to cut back on application after prices rocketed earlier in the year.
Cutbacks mainly fell on wheat because canola and barley offered better profit margins. Benchmark Chicago wheat prices have risen nearly 30 per cent so far this year due to crop losses in the United States and attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other’s exports. Despite issues in Western Australia, the nationwide outlook for wheat production has improved thanks to rain in many southern and eastern cropping regions. Analysts expect Australia to produce roughly 30 million tons of wheat this year.
Ukraine has cut its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season by up to 12% from a previous projection, its agriculture minister citing Russian attacks on the country's southern Odesa port hub. "We are currently targeting 38–40 million tons," Taras Vysotskyi said in the first official export forecast since escalating Russian attacks in late July effectively halted shipments from Odesa ports, which are vital to Ukraine and the global agricultural market.
The ministry had forecast exports of 43 million tons this season before the escalation. Russia has in recent weeks attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals and vessels entering and leaving the ports almost daily. The lower grain export forecast underscores the damage the attacks are inflicting on a country that ships more than 90% of its grain exports through the seaports. Agricultural products account for the largest share of Ukraine's overall exports. The disruption could result in a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tons, the agriculture ministry said on Monday. Earlier this month, Vysotskyi said losses to the agricultural sector from the port blockade could reach $3 billion. The ministry's forecast was broadly in line with estimates by APK-Inform analysts, who on Monday cut their export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons due to the export disruptions. The consultancy said in a report that it had cut its export forecast for wheat, corn and barley. The estimate included 13.5 million tons of wheat, 24 million tons of corn and 1.5 million tons of barley, it said.
The Welsh Government is urging farmers and livestock keepers across Wales to watch for signs of Bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) as cases continue to rise in Wales and England.Since the all-Wales Restricted Zone was introduced in November 2025, livestock can move freely between England and Wales. That makes it more important to check the Bluetongue status of any animals before buying or moving them.Wales' Chief Veterinary Officer, Richard Irvine, said Wales is now in the active transmission period, with more BTV-3 cases in both cattle and sheep emerging in Wales and in south-west England. He stressed that safe sourcing is crucial, and that vaccination remains the best way to protect herds and flocks.
