South Africa’s already strained trade relationship with the United States has suffered another setback after the Trump administration announced that the country will lose its preferential access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from 1 January 2027. Rwanda has also been excluded from the programme.
The announcement, made by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Monday evening, 2 November, means South African exporters will no longer enjoy the special tariff advantages that have helped them compete in the American market for more than two decades.
The decision is a serious concern for South African agriculture, particularly industries that have built long-standing commercial relationships with American buyers. However, it does not mean that South African products will be banned from entering the United States. They will still have access to the market, but at higher tariff rates.
According to renowned agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, exporters must understand the difference between losing preferential trade benefits and losing access to a market altogether.
Under the new arrangements, some South African products could face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of approximately 3.4%. This could increase the total tariff on certain products from the current 12.5% to around 15.9%. Although this will make exports more expensive, Sihlobo points out that it is still better than the 30% tariffs imposed on South African products during 2025.
South African agriculture has already demonstrated its ability to continue trading under difficult conditions. Despite the higher tariffs in 2025, agricultural exports to the US were estimated at US$504 million, only about 3% lower than the previous year. Exports also increased by 56% between the first and second quarters of 2026, reaching US$123 million after tariffs were reduced.
The American market accounts for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports. Products include citrus, berries, table grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, nuts and other agricultural commodities.
However, the national figures do not tell the whole story. Certain farming industries and regions are much more dependent on the American market than others.
The Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa has warned that the decision could have serious consequences for citrus producers, particularly in the Western and Northern Cape. CEO Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele says the loss of AGOA benefits is not only a setback for South African farmers but could also affect American consumers who depend on imported citrus.
Citrusdal is an example of how an entire rural town can depend on competitive access to an export market. When export opportunities become more expensive or uncertain, the consequences reach far beyond the farm gate. Packhouses, transport companies, seasonal workers, suppliers and local businesses all depend on a healthy agricultural export industry.
The litchi industry is also exposed. During the 2025/26 season, the United States accounted for 28.85% of South African litchi exports.
On table grape exports, AGOA issues, and the need for logistics efficiency in SA
AgriSA has warned that even relatively small tariff increases can put pressure on agricultural businesses operating on narrow profit margins. Higher costs could affect export orders, investment decisions and employment, especially in regions where international markets support local economies.
The organisation believes South Africa must strengthen its domestic agricultural environment by improving port efficiency, biosecurity, export certification and access to alternative markets. It also wants government to pursue a more predictable long-term trade agreement with Washington.
The political reaction has been equally strong. Solidarity has blamed President Cyril Ramaphosa and International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola for the deteriorating relationship with the United States. The organisation argues that government ignored warnings about the diplomatic consequences and that ordinary workers and businesses will now carry the economic burden. These are Solidarity's political assessments, while the White House has cited concerns about trade barriers, corruption, national security and foreign policy interests as reasons for its decision.
South Africa has benefited from AGOA since the programme began in 2000 and has been one of its most successful users. The country was previously encouraged to pursue a full bilateral trade agreement with the United States, but negotiations never reached a successful conclusion.
The challenge now is to protect existing American customers while building stronger relationships with other international markets, including Asia and the Middle East. These destinations offer opportunities, but they cannot simply replace established markets in the United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Africa.
South African agriculture has proved its resilience many times. However, resilience alone cannot compensate indefinitely for higher costs, political uncertainty and difficult access to international markets.
The message is clear: South Africa must protect its export relationships, improve its competitiveness and put the long-term interests of farmers, workers and the rural economy ahead of political differences. Losing AGOA is not the end of agricultural trade with America, but it is a warning that international markets cannot be taken for granted.
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