The world is moving into an El Niño year, and the signs are already clear. Many regions are experiencing erratic rainfall, longer dry spells, and unpredictable weather patterns that are disrupting normal farming seasons. According to the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and NOAA as of May 2026, there is now a 60–70% chance of El Niño developing by mid-year. Several climate models suggest it could become a strong or even “super” El Niño event later in 2026 — potentially one of the most intense in recent decades.El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean and changes weather patterns across the globe.
In Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, and parts of Central America, it often brings severe drought and higher temperatures. At the same time, other areas such as parts of South America and the southern United States can expect heavier rainfall and flooding. These shifts can dramatically affect agriculture.
History shows how serious the impact can be. The strong 1997–98 El Niño and the 2015–16 event caused major crop failures in several regions. Millions of people faced food shortages, particularly in Southern Africa, where maize harvests collapsed in some countries. A strong El Niño in 2026 could repeat or even exceed those effects, especially because it is arriving at a difficult time.Farmers are already struggling with skyrocketing input costs.
Fertilizer prices have risen sharply due to global supply chain problems, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of the world’s fertilizer trade. When fertilizer becomes expensive, many farmers use less of it, which leads to lower crop yields. A dry El Niño year on top of this could reduce production of key staples like maize, wheat, and rice in vulnerable areas.
Food prices would likely climb much higher, hitting poor families the hardest.The combination of a strong El Niño, high energy and fertilizer costs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions could create a serious global food shock by late 2026 and into 2027. Import-dependent countries with limited budgets are especially at risk. While it is too early to predict exact outcomes, experts warn that without quick action, food crises could worsen significantly in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.The good news is that governments, farmers, and international organisations can still reduce the damage.
Early preparation is essential. This includes improving water management and irrigation, encouraging more efficient use of fertilizer, supporting crop diversification, and keeping international trade flowing smoothly. Social protection programmes will also be needed to help vulnerable communities.A strong El Niño is a serious challenge, but with clear planning and cooperation, its worst effects on food security can be limited. The coming months will be critical in determining how well the world responds.
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